Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.327819 14.412293 16.696821 19.380383 22.439991 25.813118 29.806727
2024-10-13 8.857244 11.616205 14.949110 19.243771 24.599868 31.025891 39.281904
2024-10-20 6.715896 9.740330 13.714451 19.252182 26.690879 36.248956 49.354676
2024-10-27 5.298462 8.402326 12.792825 19.337004 28.696967 41.428998 59.842311
2024-11-03 4.648055 7.954719 12.932503 20.779356 32.594252 49.422506 74.816953
2024-11-10 4.037805 7.416910 12.803266 21.736397 35.819825 56.712504 89.436206
2024-11-17 3.512829 6.895427 12.581888 22.462734 38.703936 63.694411 104.154881
2024-11-24 2.923112 6.134303 11.826720 22.182965 39.912109 68.171508 115.398845
2024-12-01 2.368726 5.317395 10.829003 21.321764 40.012559 70.839166 123.949544
2024-12-08 1.946632 4.664457 10.009568 20.632788 40.274744 73.714869 132.970233
2024-12-15 1.693698 4.304667 9.678750 20.774528 41.972353 79.072089 146.428959
2024-12-22 1.433882 3.872689 9.131635 20.417023 42.696598 82.777311 157.317653
2024-12-29 1.324400 3.775192 9.280979 21.500438 46.318437 92.032743 178.813344
2025-01-05 1.162925 3.517767 9.050112 21.784004 48.446972 98.812383 196.526769
2025-01-12 1.017139 3.265658 8.788574 21.965163 50.388616 105.407669 214.416728
2025-01-19 0.891287 3.035414 8.536921 22.128316 52.300198 112.086838 232.936861
2025-01-26 0.860666 3.067895 8.924239 23.781527 57.486963 125.460873 264.933622
2025-02-02 0.802716 3.005487 9.063323 24.871529 61.565337 136.946564 294.061621
2025-02-09 0.738093 2.906290 9.090463 25.694582 65.131864 147.657597 322.364650
2025-02-16 0.636296 2.658631 8.677776 25.381140 66.117558 153.181065 340.796733
2025-02-23 0.527105 2.351875 8.042588 24.411030 65.485290 155.279621 352.478943
2025-03-02 0.441084 2.099686 7.513340 23.634243 65.209413 158.081105 365.737167
2025-03-09 0.392711 1.975161 7.342303 23.794233 67.196764 165.891076 389.847161